The First Overall Pick in the MLB Draft: Pitchers vs. Position Players

Two years ago, I wrote the following introduction to a post on pitchers who were selected with the first overall pick in the draft:

If you are a major league general manager with the first overall pick in the draft and you’re thinking about selecting a starting pitcher to serve as the ace of your staff for the next ten years, let me give you some advice: don’t do it. History is not on your side.

Let the record show that exactly 24 months and three days have passed since those words were typed on my keyboard, yet if I were advising the Washington Nationals, I would wholeheartedly recommend that they take Stephen Strasburg with the first overall selection.  Funny how a little excess hype can get in the way of good old fashioned evidence.

Thirteen pitchers were taken with the first overall pick between 1973 (David Clyde) and 2007 (David Price), nine of whom played at least five seasons in the major leagues (Brien Taylor injured his shoulder in an off-field incident in the minors and was never the same pitcher; Bryan Bullington has appeared in 13 games spread over four seasons; and it hasn’t even been five years since Hochevar and Price were drafted). Four of those nine played more than ten seasons and won more than 100 games, including Mike Moore (161), Andy Benes (155), Tim Belcher (146), and Floyd Bannister (134); Moore (176) and Bannister (143) each had losing records.

So what are you getting if you take a pitcher in the top spot?  If this was the 1970s or 1980s, there would be a good chance you’d have some value coming your way, but the last guy to last more than nine years in the majors was Andy Benes, valedictorian of the Draft Class of 1988.  At least four of the last eight have experienced major arm trouble (and I’m not sure about McDonald), with Luke Hochevar and David Price hoping to stop the trend.

Year	Player	Team	Yrs	W-L	SO	ERA
2007	David Price	Tampa Bay	2	1-0	32	2.20
2006	Luke Hochevar*	Kansas City	3	7-15	83	5.51
2002	Bryan Bullington*	Pittsburgh	1	0-5	25	5.08
1997	Matt Anderson	Detroit	7	15-7	224	5.19
1996	Kris Benson*	Pittsburgh	7	69-74	798	4.41
1994	Paul Wilson	New York (N)	7	40-58	619	4.86
1991	Brien Taylor	New York (A)	DNP
1989	Ben McDonald	Baltimore	9	78-70	894	3.91
1988	Andy Benes	San Diego	14	155-139	2000	3.97
1983	Tim Belcher	Minnesota	14	146-140	1519	4.16
1981	Mike Moore	Seattle	14	161-176	1667	4.39
1976	Floyd Bannister	Houston	15	134-143	1723	4.06
1973	David Clyde	Texas	5	18-33	228	4.63

Given a chance to do it all over again, I’m not sure any team would take any of these pitchers with the first overall pick in the draft. Taylor and his unrealized potential might be an option (just keep him out of bar fights – or teach him to swing with his right hand), but who else stands out? Benes? Hochevar? Moore (terrible numbers early in his career with Seattle, averaged 16-17 wins a year in four seasons with good Oakland teams)?  Maybe Price, depending on how the next couple years go.  Most of the time, though, you’re better off taking a position player first and picking up pitching later.

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Contrary to the performances turned in by the pitchers, position players drafted in the top spot are often solid and occasionally spectacular. A full 17 out of 31 played in the major leagues for more than ten seasons (plus several more who were chosen within the past ten years), including future Hall of Famers Ken Griffey, Jr., Chipper Jones and Alex Rodriguez (three out of the four position players selected between 1987 and 1993; the other was Phil Nevin).

Not everyone had a career as great as the three mentioned above, but many had at least one moment of fame during their playing days:

• Rick Monday (1965), in addition to being the first ever draft pick, was best known for stopping two young men from burning the American flag on the field in 1975.
• Steve Chilcott (1966) was the only position player selected first overall who never reached the major leagues (2004’s Matthew Bush became a pitcher – and thus slips through on a technicality – and 2008’s Tim Beckham doesn’t count just yet)
• Ron Blomberg (1967) was the first designated hitter.
• Jeff Burroughs (1969) won an MVP award and fathered Little League World Series hero Sean Burroughs.
• Danny Goodwin (1971, 1975) is the only player taken first overall in two different drafts.
• Dave Roberts (1972) and Bob Horner (1978) went directly from the draft to the major leagues. Horner later became one of the few men to hit four homeruns in one game.
• Josh Hamilton (1999) was out of baseball before overcoming drug addiction, returning to the game and making his big league debut in 2007, and leading the American League in RBIs in 2008.
• Delmon Young (2003) and Justin Upton (2005) are both the younger brother of a top five pick. Dmitri Young was taken fourth overall in 1991, while B.J. Upton went second in 2002.  Tim Beckham’s (2008) older brother Jeremy was drafted by the Rays in the 17th round of the same draft.
  

  Year	Player	Team	Yrs	HR	RBI	OPS
  2008	Tim Beckham	Tampa Bay	DNP
  2005	Justin Upton*	Arizona	3	28	87	.831
  2004	Matthew Bush*	San Diego	DNP
  2003	Delmon Young *	Tampa Bay	4	27	186	.723
  2001	Joe Mauer*	Minnesota	6	56	336	.881
  2000	Adrian Gonzalez*	Florida	6	119	368	.862
  1999	Josh Hamilton *	Tampa Bay	3	57	201	.889
  1998	Pat Burrell *	Philadelphia	10	252	844	.848
  1995	Darin Erstad*	California	14	122	691	.743
  1993	Alex Rodriguez*	Seattle	16	561	1629	.967
  1992	Phil Nevin	Houston	12	208	743	.815
  1990	Chipper Jones*	Atlanta	16	415	1402	.956
  1987	Ken Griffey, Jr.*	Seattle	21	617	1788	.916
  1986	Jeff King	Pittsburgh	11	154	709	.749
  1985	B.J. Surhoff	Milwaukee	19	188	1153	.745
  1984	Shawn Abner	New York (N)	6	11	71	.592
  1982	Shawon Dunston	Chicago (N)	18	150	668	.712
  1980	Darryl Strawberry	New York (N)	17	335	1000	.862
  1979	Al Chambers	Seattle	3	2	11	.618
  1978	Bob Horner	Atlanta	10	218	685	.839
  1977	Harold Baines	Chicago (A)	22	384	1628	.821
  1975	Danny Goodwin	California	7	13	81	.674
  1974	Bill Almon	San Diego	15	36	296	.648
  1972	Dave Roberts	San Diego	10	7	208	.643
  1971	Danny Goodwin	Chicago (A)	7	13	81	.674
  1970	Mike Ivie	San Diego	11	81	411	.745
  1969	Jeff Burroughs	Washington	16	240	882	.794
  1968	Tim Foli	New York (N)	16	25	501	.592
  1967	Ron Blomberg	New York (A)	8	52	224	.833
  1966	Steve Chilcott	New York (N)	DNP
  1965	Rick Monday	Kansas City A	19	241	775	.804

One general note on the draft: Tampa Bay selected first overall four times – Josh Hamilton, Delmon Young, David Price, and Tim Beckham. Only one of those players, Price, actually had anything to do with the team that went to the World Series last year (although Young was traded for Jason Bartlett and Matt Garza).